Germany’s medical cannabis market, the largest in Europe, has entered its commoditisation phase. An analysis of a full year of real sales puts the drop in the median price of a gram of flower at 31%, from €8.64 to €5.95, while average potency climbed from 23% to 26% THC. At the same time, German imports posted their first quarterly decline since the reform in the first quarter of 2026: 50,539 kg, down 15% on the previous quarter.
The numbers: more volume, thinner margins
Figures from Germany’s Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM) describe a market that is still growing year on year but no longer in a straight line. Germany imported more than 205 tonnes of medical cannabis in 2025, against roughly 62 tonnes in 2024, the year the reform took effect. The rolling twelve-month total now exceeds 218 tonnes.
The Q1 2026 breakdown confirms who controls supply:
- Canada: 26,753 kg, 53% of all imports.
- Portugal: 10,342 kg, the second-largest supplier and the usual gateway into the European market.
- Denmark: 3,338 kg.
That 50,539 kg figure is 34% above the first quarter of 2025, but 15% below the fourth quarter of 2025. Solid year-on-year growth, a quarterly brake: that is the picture.
Potency rules and the price collapses
The figure that should worry producers is not volume but price. The study reported by Forbes, built on some 6.5 million observations and 996 distinct flower products at a German online dispensary between December 2024 and November 2025, shows the cost per 10 mg of THC fell 36%, from €0.37 to €0.23.
Demand has concentrated in a single band: flower between 20% and 29.9% THC accounts for more than two thirds of sales, while products below 15% attract little interest. In practice, the German buyer pays per milligram of THC and compares. That behaviour rewards scale and punishes any operator without the cost structure to compete at €6 a gram.
What it means for the European business
For companies in the sector, the reading is uncomfortable but clear:
- The edge is no longer access, it is cost. With EU-GMP now an entry requirement rather than a differentiator, margin is decided in cultivation and logistics.
- Canada sets the reference price. Its exporters do not carry domestic excise taxes abroad, and that shows in the rate reaching Germany.
- Portugal proves the value of processing. Being Europe’s certification and conditioning point is as much a business as growing.
- Regulatory risk is still live. Berlin has a reform in progress that would tighten flower prescribing and limit telemedicine, the channel that drove demand.
- Consolidation is coming. Price compression is accelerating mergers and acquisitions among operators without sufficient scale.
The Spanish opportunity
Spain reaches this scenario with the AEMPS registry of standardised preparations freshly opened and an established export position. The German lesson is that the European market will not reward whoever arrives first, but whoever arrives with competitive costs, solid certification and a customer on the other side. Portugal, shipping 10 tonnes a quarter to Germany, shows what a southern European country can build when it aligns production, certification and commercial channel. The window is open, but it narrows as the price falls.
This is exactly what Spannabis B2B Bilbao 2027 is about. The International Cannabis Business Forum takes place on 11 March 2027 in the VIP Hall of the BEC, Bilbao, seating producers, laboratories, distributors and investors at the same table to close the deals that decide who competes in Europe and who watches from the sidelines. If your company exports, imports or wants to, book your B2B table and check the available tickets.